[rrd-users] holt-winters

Patrick Felt pfelt at feltonline.com
Wed Apr 26 04:40:03 MEST 2006

hey everyone,

   i'm looking for more information on the holt-winters forecasting 
algorithm.  specifically, how does it constitute a failure?  i've got an 
rrd in which i've created holt-winters rras.  it is functioning great in 
drawing the confidence bounds between which the data should fall (as 
described in: http://cricket.sourceforge.net/aberrant/rrd_hw.htm

the only problem that i'm having is the failures.  i've plotted the 
graph for today and at about 12:00pm  the data spiked to about 4 Mbit. 
the upper confidence bound is at about 3Mbit.  I checked the rrd via a 
dump and at that time the failure rra does not show a failure at that time.

did i do something wrong here?


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