[rrd-users] Using the Holt-Winters algorithm for prediction of future values

Faraaz Sareshwala fsareshwala at quantcast.com
Wed Sep 2 23:51:09 CEST 2009

Ah right. So if I set my season to be two days, I could then use RRDtool to predict what the value will be in two days based on previous trends? Or have I misunderstood something here? :P

Faraaz Sareshwala


Today Faraaz Sareshwala wrote:

> Yeah, I've been using the following RRA command in creating the rrd file:
> "RRA:HWPREDICT:2016:0.1:0.0035:20"
> I'm able to get confidence bands and tick marks along with the HWPREDICT line on our graphs. I'm just wondering how to use that data that RRDtool collects to display future values. Any help is greatly appreciated :D.
> Faraaz
> On Wed, Sep 02, 2009 at 11:14:58AM -0700, Faraaz Sareshwala wrote:
> > Yeah, I've been searching on the Internet for some time now on how to
> > predict future values based on past trends using RRDtool for some time
> > now but haven't gotten anywhere. I'm not so concerned about that graph
> > in particular, but would like to bring the prediction of future data
> > points to our graphs. Are there any pages out there that describe how
> > to do this?
> Have you seen the section on Holt-Winters in the rrdcreate
> documentation?  It tells you that you need to create certain RRAs (which
> can be automated by creating the HWPREDICT RRA without the final
> argument).  Then you can use them for graphing or in RPN calculations.

note the HW as it is implemented in rrdtool only predicts the
'next' value ... the reason for this is that rrdtool uses this to
detect aberrant behaviour and for this we do not need to predict
into the future ...


> --
> Darren
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