[rrd-users] Experiance in HW forcast

[Michael Schwartzkopff]

Hi,

In the last week I read into the HW forecasting and the implementation in the 
rrdtools.

After reading a lot there are still some questions open:

1) How do I choose the initial values for the fitting parameters alpha, beta 
and gamma?

in my experiments alpha behaved nicely and it was no problem to find the 
optimal alpha. But the least square function of gamma in the range of ]0,1[ 
seems to be fractal. So it will be extremely difficult to optimize the 
parameters. 
Anybody else with this experience?

In all samples in the net nobody explains why he choose exactly this 
parameters. Why?

2) Is there any possibility to optimize the fitting parameters to recent data? 
My idea would be to optimize the fitting parameters, create the RRDs and to 
optimize the RRDs from time to time. Any ideas or comments?

Are there any experts on the list? I would like to start a discussion about 
making the use of the forecasting in RRDs as simple as creating a plain graph.

Greetings,

-- 
Dr. Michael Schwartzkopff
Guardinistr. 63
81375 München

Tel: (0163) 172 50 98
Fax: (089) 620 304 13
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: not available
Type: application/pgp-signature
Size: 198 bytes
Desc: This is a digitally signed message part.
Url : http://lists.oetiker.ch/pipermail/rrd-users/attachments/20120513/b8acf45a/attachment.pgp