[rrd-users] Re: Trend Line

Dan McGinn-Combs d.mcginn-combs at mindspring.com
Thu Mar 22 15:50:14 MET 2001

I think this is pretty much what I'm looking for, Paul. I was trying to come
up with an example for Clifton.

Your example is right on the money, but let's move it over to hard disk
space. I have a user drive which began life as 0% utilized. Each week it got
5% more utilized, i.e. 0% - 5% - 10% - 15% - 20%. I can pretty much predict
with some certainty that after 20 weeks it will be completely full. I can
give that information to management and offer them a choice, either you ask
individuals to clean up the data they put on the drive, or you buy a new
drive in 15 more weeks.

The trend line allows me to make that case.

I will happily accept ideas from anyone! :-)


----- Original Message -----
From: "Paul C. Williamson" <pwilliamson at mandtbank.com>
> I think what Dan is asking for is some kind of "predictor" based on
> historical data.  Say 4 weeks ago, utilization was 3%, then 3 weeks
> ago it was 5%, 2 weeks ago it was 8%, and last week it was 10%.
> I know that this is not a perfect world, but I would say with some level
> of certainty that this week will be about 12%, and next week will most
> likely be in the neighborhood of 15%.  It would be neat to show a
> straight line that would show this "trend" over the next "x" weeks or
> until the trend shows a certain percent of utilization (or maybe an
> "SLA average exceeded" predictor?).  I'm think about how to do this
> one now...
> Paul
> >>> Clifton Royston <cliftonr at lava.net> 03/21/01 02:32PM >>>
> I think you need to define a little better exactly what you want this
> trend line to graph.  I didn't quite get it from this description.  It
> might turn out that it is doable already, or is something somebody
> could tell you how to do if you clarify a little more.
> "Growth towards the service level" means what?  Maximum value ever seen
> to that point in time (maximum of maximum)?  Exponential rolling
> average of the maximum?  Or did this tie in to the percentile
> discussion because you want it to graph the 95th percentile over a
> rolling time window?

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