[rrd-users] Re: adding holt-winters forecasting to existing databases

[Praveen P]

Hi Alex,

What would be a good forum to ask questions about HW ?
The last couple of my questions on the topic to this
list went un-answered.

I am having trouble tuning the alpha,beta and gamma
parameters so that I can make the counters learn the
pattern correctly. But I could not find much
documentation on this. The original paper from Jake
Brutlag gives some thumb rules, but from the equations
given there, it is not easy to see the change in
behavior with the change in the parameters. The
rrdtune page does not specify much either (for example
what would be the effects of values as they move
between 0 and 1 for gamma and gamma deviation).

Thanks, 
Praveen.

--- Alex van den Bogaerdt <alex at ergens.op.het.net>
wrote:

> On Sun, Sep 10, 2006 at 12:27:41AM +1000, Darryl
> Lewis wrote:
> 
> > I have about 100 rrd's that I'd like to modify and
> add Holt-Winters forecasting to.
> > Being that I have a 12 months worth of data in
> each of them, I'm reluctant to blow them away and
> start again.
> > I'd like to modify the existing databases to
> include 
> > 
> > RRA:HWPREDICT:rows:alpha:beta:seasonal
> period[:rra-num] 
> > RRA:SEASONAL:seasonal period:gamma:rra-num 
> > RRA:DEVSEASONAL:seasonal period:gamma:rra-num 
> > RRA:DEVPREDICT:rows:rra-num 
> > RRA:FAILURES:rows:threshold:window length:rra-num 
> > 
> > Does anyone have a script or procedure / set of
> instructions to add these to existing rrd's?
> 
> No experience with HW, but transfering available
> data to a new database
> should be standard.
> 
> 1:
> Create the new database, make sure to set "--start"
> slightly earlier than
> the oldest data you're going to insert.
> 
> 2:
> Tune the new RRD so that it accepts gauge data (no
> matter the real DS types).
> Also set the heartbeat to a high number, at least as
> high as the largest
> step*steps in your RRAs.
> 
> 3:
> Use rrdtool fetch to get data out of the original
> RRD. Feed this data into
> the new RRD
> 
> 4:
> Tune the RRD back to its original settings.
> 
> 
> Step 3 may involve a couple of substeps, depending
> on the resolution of
> your RRAs.  Make sure you understand data
> consolidation and you'll know
> what to do.
> 
> HTH
> -- 
> Alex van den Bogaerdt
> http://www.vandenbogaerdt.nl/rrdtool/
> 
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